Twin Cities Metro Transit
Will my bus be late?
Pick your route, stop and time. For each scheduled Twin Cities Metro Transit departure, you'll see how late it usually runs, the chance it's 5+ minutes late, and the chance it leaves early. Use it to choose which bus to catch.
My trips
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Direction
These are planning estimates from past patterns and the weather forecast. For where your bus is right now, use Gopher X Metro or Metro Transit NexTrip.
How accurate is this?
Checked every day
Each day, the model the site was serving is scored on the departures it predicted. It had never seen them.
How it works
- Data. Every 15 minutes, a GitHub Action reads Metro Transit's GTFS-Realtime trip updates. It records how far ahead of or behind schedule every active bus and train is at its next stop, and matches each one to the published schedule.
- What it predicts. For each scheduled departure at your stop, three things:
- the typical (median) delay;
- the chance it's 5 or more minutes late;
- the chance it leaves 1 or more minutes early.
- What it knows.
- How late that exact scheduled trip, your stop and the route have run before. A trip needs about 20 observations before its own history outweighs its route's.
- How far along the route your stop is.
- The time of day and day of week, and holidays.
- How the route has run this past week.
- The hourly weather forecast (temperature, rain, snow, wind).
- Model. Gradient-boosted trees (LightGBM), retrained every morning. The model runs in your browser.